Global macroeconomic situation


GDP growth in 2012-2014

Source: In-house analysis based on IMF data (October 2013 and January 2014).

GDP growth in 2012-2013
(y-o-y change)

Source: In-house analysis based on Eurostat, OECD, and International Monetary Fund data.

The global economic situation in 2013 was below market expectations. The key economies of the world continued growing, often at rates lower than in previous years.

Developed economies were supported by loose monetary policies and efforts to maintain market liquidity.

While in 2013 the global economy continued to grow, the estimated growth rate (+3.0%) was lower than expected in the forecasts published in April and July 2013, though it did come in slightly above the October 2013 estimates. Similarly, the forecast for the 2014 global GDP growth rate has been revised upward by 0.1pp, and now stands at 3.7%.

Despite a number of remedial steps and reforms undertaken in the eurozone countries, they still suffered an estimated 0.4% decline in GDP in 2013. However, the GDP growth rate in the eurozone is expected to return to the positive territory in 2014. (1)

Developed countries may be expected to further stimulate economic growth with continued support from monetary policy (without further loosening), balanced fiscal policy and further structural reforms, to address key economic concerns, including unemployment.

(1) World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2013 and January 2014.