International fuel market (1)

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Global fuel consumption ('000 BBL/day)

Source: In-house analysis based on JBC data, November 2013.

Forecast global fuel consumption ('000 BBL/day)

Source: In-house analysis based on JBC data, November 2013.

Forecast fuel consumption in Europe ('000 BBL/day)

Source: In-house analysis based on JBC data, November 2013.

Demand for oil refinery products in 2013 is estimated to have risen by 1.1% globally. Stronger demand was seen in the gasolines (1.0%) and diesel oil (2.5%) segments. The estimated consumption of LPG and jet fuel also increased (by 3.3% and 1.2%, respectively). However, the demand for light fuel oil slightly fell (by -1.5%).

According to forecasts, the overall global consumption of refinery products is expected to grow by over 5% until 2018. It is estimated that demand for diesel oil, LPG and JET fuel will grow significantly over 2013 consumption (up 12%, 11% and 8%, respectively). The global consumption of gasolines should remain relatively unchanged. Light fuel oil consumption is expected to fall by 13%.

According to estimates, consumption of petroleum products in Europe may have declined in 2013 by nearly 1.5%. However, LPG, diesel oil, and light fuel oil saw an increase of 2.8%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively. Consumption of gasolines and JET fuel fell by 4.0% and 0.7%. The restrained growth of fuels consumption in Europe reflects the as-yet unresolved economic issues in certain EU Member States and in the eurozone.

The demand for oil refining products is forecast to fall in Europe by 3.7% until 2018. According to estimates, one of the reasons behind the decline will be a significant drop in consumption of gasolines, exceeding 13%. Lower consumption is also expected to affect the light fuel oil market (-16%). Concurrently, a strong increase is expected in consumption of JET fuel - by 3.0%, and LPG - by 4.8%.

In the European car market, new passenger car registrations fell by nearly 2% in 2013, to 12.3m new cars. However, in the utility vehicles segment new registrations increased by 1%, up to 1.8m vehicles. In terms of registered new passenger cars, there is continued growing interest in diesel-fuelled cars. Their share in total new car registrations in Western Europe was nearly 55% (compared with 46% in 2009). (2)

(1) Mid-Term Oil Market Outlook 2013-2018, JBC Energy, November 2013

(2) European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, www.acea.be