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Grupa LOTOS share price (PLN) and trading volume (number of shares) since their first listing on the WSE

Grupa LOTOS shares have been listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since June 9th 2005. At present, the total number of Company shares is 129,873,362.

Grupa LOTOS share price performance vs. market indices

2013 was a good year for investors in shares, with equities emerging as the best-performing asset class, particularly in the developed markets. Stock exchange indices in the US, the world’s largest economy, soared by more than 30% (NASDAQ up 35% and S&P500 up approximately 30%). In Europe, the top performer was Germany’s DAX, up 26%.
The year saw only slight movements in the main WSE indices. The WIG index of all Main Market listings gained 8%, with the annual change in the WIG20 being negative at -7%. 

In September 2013, the WSE launched its new WIG30 index of the thirty largest and most liquid companies. 

As at the end of the year, the index had fallen by almost 2%. Its two SME indices, the mWIG40 and sWIG80, rose 31% and 37% respectively, delivering the top rates of return.
Looking at stock performance by sector, the winning WIG-BUDOWNICTWO construction sector index gained 33%, with the WIG-PALIWA fuels sector index (down 10%) arriving at the other end of the spectrum. 
The RESPECT corporate social responsibility index lost over 4% during 2013.
The price of Grupa LOTOS shares followed the general market trends in 2013, remaining within the PLN 33.15-PLN 44.95 range, closing for the year at PLN 35.45.
In the period under review, the number of Grupa LOTOS shares changing hands in an average trading session was 229,877, down 18% relative to the previous year. The total value of trading in its stock was in excess of PLN 2.2bn, representing 1% of total WSE trading, with an average of 877 trades per session.
The Company’s market capitalisation as at the end of 2013 stood at just over PLN 4.6bn.

Grupa LOTOS shares in 2011-2013 *
  2011 2012 2013
Free float shares (million shares) 129.87 129.87 129.87
Price of Grupa LOTOS shares (PLN)
Low 22.26 21.3 32.97
High 49.5 43.78 45.45
Closing price 23.3 41.2 35.45
Rate of return at end of period (%) -35.9 76.82 -13.96
Trade in Grupa LOTOS shares
Trading value (PLN m) 3,299.07 2,013.15 2,211.43
Share in trade (%) 1.31 1.07 1.00
Average trading volume per session 377,048 282,163 229,877
Average number of trades per session 967 810 877
Company valuation
Market capitalisation at end of period (PLN m) 3,026.00 5,351.00 4,603.89
Book value (PLN m) 7,782.40 9,066.40 9,189.60
EV** (PLN m) 10,032.87 11,472.60  10,311.89
Valuation ratios
Earnings per share (PLN) 5.03 7.14 0.30
P/E*** (x) 4.66 5.80 118.00
P/BV**** (x) 0.38 0.59 0.50
EV/EBITDA***** (x) 6.04 11.89 12.85

* In-house analysis based on WSE and Company data.
** EV (Enterprise Value) − market capitalisation plus debt, non-controlling interests, and preferred shares, minus cash and cash equivalents.
*** P/E – Price/Earnings
**** P/BV – Price/Book Value
***** EV/EBITDA − Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Grupa LOTOS share price in 2013 (PLN)

Effect of important events at the Company on the market price of Grupa LOTOS shares in 2013

Grupa LOTOS share price performance vs. market indices in 2013 *

* Rebased (100 = closing price at December 28th 2012)

Dividend policy

Dividend distributions for 2011-2015 are subject to the LOTOS Group’s Strategy for 2011-2015, which provides for optimisation of the LOTOS Group financing. Grupa LOTOS’ financial strategy provides for distribution of up to 30% of net profit as dividend.
However, the Board of Grupa LOTOS recommended that no part of the 2012 net profit be distributed to the Company’s shareholders. On June 28th 2013, acting upon the Board’s recommendation, the General Meeting resolved to allocate the 2012 profit as follows: 

  • PLN 834,931,320.89 was allocated to statutory reserve funds,
  • PLN 1,500,000.00 was allocated to the Special Account designated for financing corporate social responsibility (CSR) projects.
Dividend and dividend yield *
Financial year Dividend (PLN) Dividend per share (PLN) Share price at the year end (PLN) Dividend yield (%)**
2005 0.00 0.00 44.20 -
2006 40,932,000.00 0.36 49.30 0.73
2007 0.00 0.00 44.50 -
2008 0.00 0.00 11.95 -
2009 0.00 0.00 31.80 -
2010 0.00 0.00 36.35 -
2011 0.00 0.00 23.30 -
2012 0.00 0.00 35.45 -

* In-house analysis based on Company data.
** Dividend yield – dividend per share to price per share.

Historical dividend per share *
Financial year Dividend per share (PLN) % of net profit Dividend record date** Dividend payment date***
2005 0.00 0.00 - -
2006 0.36 10.06 June 11 2007 not later than Jul 31 2007 
2007 0.00 0.00 - -
2008 0.00 0.00 - -
2009 0.00 0.00 - -
2010 0.00 0.00 - -
2011 0.00 0.00 - -
2012 0.00 0.00 - -

* In-house analysis based on Company data.
** Dividend record date – date on which the list of shareholders entitled to receive dividend for a given financial year is determined.
*** Dividend payment date – date on which dividend is paid to the Company’s shareholders.

Recommendations

Recommendations on Grupa LOTOS shares are issued by 13 investment houses (including brokerage houses and investment banks):

Investment houses
Investment houses
Based in Poland Based abroad
DM mBanku Societe Generale
DM BZ WBK Erste Bank
DM IDM Wood & Co.
DM PKO BP Deutsche Bank
DM BDM Raiffeisen Centrobank
DI Investors  
ING Securities  
Espirito Santo Investment Bank  

To the best of the Company’s knowledge, in 2013 brokers issued 25 recommendations on Company shares:

  • 4 BUY recommendations *
  • 9 HOLD recommendations **
  • 3 REDUCE recommendations ***
  • 9 SELL recommendations ****

of which:

  • 6 recommendations were upgraded
  • 10 recommendations were maintained
  • 5 recommendations were downgraded.

Furthermore, there was:

  • 1 coverage initiation; and
  • 3 coverage re-initiations

* BUY – total expected rate of return will exceed 15% in 12 months
** HOLD – total expected rate of return will be between -5% and +5% in 12 months
*** REDUCE − total expected rate of return will be between -5% and -15% in 12 months
**** SELL − total expected rate of return will be over -15% in 12 months.

Structure of broker recommendations on Grupa LOTOS shares in 2013 (%)

In brokers’ research reports, the target price of Grupa LOTOS shares fluctuated from PLN 29.50 to PLN 56.30, compared with PLN 19.40 to PLN 38.90 in 2012. The average target price of its shares in 2013 was PLN 37.70 (2012: PLN 26.80). Grupa LOTOS shares traded within a range from PLN 33.15 to PLN 44.95. At the end of 2013, the price of Grupa LOTOS shares was PLN 35.45.

Brokers’ recommendations and average target price against the market price of Grupa LOTOS shares

* Simple moving average – arithmetic mean of target prices in broker recommendations for 12 months (excluding recommendation updates older than six months).

Grupa LOTOS in the RESPECT Index

Since November 19th 2009, Grupa LOTOS has been continuously included in the index of WSE-listed socially responsible companies, the RESPECT Index (Responsibility, Ecology, Sustainability, Participation, Environment, Community, Transparency). 

Logo Respect Index

The index includes those Polish and international companies listed on the WSE Main Market that uphold the best management standards in corporate and information governance, as well as investor relations, and that act responsibly in the social, governance and environmental areas. 

In 2013, the Company underwent external review for compliance with the index’s criteria twice. Since December 23rd 2013, we have been included in the index which comprises a record-breaking 23 companies. In the 7th edition of the RESPECT project, new criteria were applied to find the leaders of responsible business in Poland. The most important changes were in the survey’s questions, which had been divided into three groups, each representing a different set of factors related to performance in the categories of Environmental, Social and Governance. Furthermore, the index’s entry requirements were changed to accommodate specific characteristics of various industries. Starting from 2014, the organizational maturity assessment will be undertaken on a yearly basis.